Estrategia long short con ETFs de EuroStoxx 50

Nos nos olvidemos de Irlanda...y la periferia Área euro

La última semana el foco de atención de los inversores ha girado hacia la subida de las tensiones en el bloque MENA. Un nuevo punto de tensión sobre los mercados financieros a tener en cuenta pero que no debe desplazar el análisis sobre una de las variables clave del corto y medio plazo.... Irlanda, Portugal, Grecia, etc... deuda, niveles de endeudamiento y cómo pagar la deuda.

En la carta semanal de Mauldin hay observaciones muy relevantes al respecto. Entre otras:

"What if the opening negotiating line started was, "We will repay the principle, but no interest, and the timeline has to be stretched out over 25 years?" And no payments for five years. Oh, and we have about 300,000 houses you can have as our first payment.

Yes, the Irish would be frozen out of the bond market. It would result in an even more serious recession. But they could actually grow their way out of it over time. A lot faster than if they were trying to pay off the debt at 6-7% interest. And remember that Argentina, for God's sake, got money just a few years after defaulting - twice, if I remember right! If Ireland got back on a sound footing, they could once again find acceptance in the bond market.

I know, that sounds radical. But give it a few years of austerity and see what the next elections bring. Irish debt will default, not because the Irish don't have hearts of gold or don't want to not pay their debts, but because they are under such a burden they can't. And eventually enough voters will realize that. It may not be next month, or even next year, but it will come. You can only ask so much of a people. Defaulting on sovereign debt is only unthinkable in elite European Union circles. And asking German voters to pay for those defaults? Care to run on THAT platform?"

Situación técnica del S&P 500

Vía ZeroHedge

From Noyce:

• The S&P has so far done the absolute minimum correction, in terms of it has tested the uptrend from the August ‘10 lows at 1,300
• However, as discussed in a number of updates and client meetings over the last couple of weeks, the thing which “concerns” us in terms of it being a warning of a larger move is the fact that the market has been above the 55-dma for such an extreme period on a daily close basis.
• With Wednesday’s close above the market having spent 123 consecutive daily sessions above this particular moving average (it hasn’t made a daily close below since 1st September ‘10). This is very extreme by historic standards and takes the S&P to a greater period above its 55-dma than that which equity markets in other regions (particularly Asia) managed before they began to correct over recent weeks.
• The other notable point about the recent price action is the extreme move seen on Monday where the market posted its largest one-day %age decline since the recent rally began in earnest on 27th August ‘10.
• In terms of levels from here;
  
  • The uptrend from the 27th August low’s at 1,300
  • A similar size correction to that which took place from the 5th November high to the 16th November low (in point terms) would target 1,290
  • The 55-dma stands at 1,284
• In conclusion we’re by no means making an argument for a real “downtrend” in equities to begin, it’s too early to make that type of statement, but, the risks of a larger correction developing do seem quite high

2011 tipping points

El enlace

Comienza la corrección: disciplina en la entrada

Crisis en bloque MENA: implicaciones económicas y posicionamiento en mercados financieros

Desde Analistas Financieros Internacionales (Afi)

Nomura y el riesgo del precio del crudo en 220 dpb

The closest comparison to the current MENA unrest is the 1990-91 Gulf War. If Libya and Algeria were to halt oil production together, prices could peak above US$220/bbl and OPEC spare capacity will be reduced to 2.1mmbbl/d, similar to levels seen during the Gulf war and when prices hit US$147/bbl in 2008. This could also result in a temporary demand destruction of some 2.0mmbbl/d globally.


El enlace

Sobre el tamaño del fondo de rescate del Área euro

For Brussels the situation is clear. The rescue fund for the heavily indebted Eurozone countries is too small. No more than €250 billion is allegedly available to protect Ireland, Portugal, and Spain for the next three years. Since this will not be enough to cover the refinancing requirements of these countries, the fund should urgently be enlarged to be able to fulfil its tasks. But is this really the case? Let’s do the math

Desde voxeu

Un problema para Portugal

El enlace

Jeff Gundlach: el S&P 500... ¿a 500 puntos?

This weekend’s Barrons has an excellent interview with Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine.  I’ve spent quite a bit of time discussing Gundlach and his performance, because quite frankly, there is no one better in the bond space than Gundlach.  His performance over the entirety of his career is simply incredible.
As the article cites, Gundlach’s outlook for bonds is likely the most credible, however, I was floored by his comment that the S&P 500 is going to 500.  Gundlach may not be an equity guru, but he’s no lightweight when it comes to understanding the macroeconomy (via Barrons)