Comentario semanal de Hussman

Hacia tiempo que no publicaba el enlace a una de los mejores informes semanales que tenemos en el mundo de las inversión.

Desde J. Hussman:

Last week did a great deal of damage to our measures of market internals, suggesting that investors have shifted measurably toward risk-aversion in an environment where risk premiums are very thin. Historically, this combination of unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action is strongly associated with a negative return/risk profile. However, we've also reached this point after six consecutive down-weeks, so the short-term condition of the market is fairly compressed and open to a fast, furious rebound to relieve that compression. The prospects for that would admittedly be better if there was less complacency among investors. Even after these consecutive declines, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) is still only about 18% (the VIX tends to spike toward 30% or higher at points where investors can reasonably be viewed as "fearful"). Likewise, though Investors Intelligence reports that the percentage of bullish investment advisors has pulled back modestly, most of them have simply gone to the "correction" camp, suggesting that the confidence in a rebound is still fairly universal. The percentage of bearish investment advisors remains way down at 22.6%


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