Dow Jones 10.000

Desde The Big Picture

Last week, I asked the question “Where Are the Bears?.” I was quoting technician Helene Meisler, who had pointed out that many of the more well known bears had flipped bullish as markets approached multi-year highs.

Amongst the few bears remaining, we can add famed Dow Theorist Richard Russell. The octogenarian wrote the following late Wednesday:

“The worst kind of market is a market that goes down on good news. As I write, optimism is in the air, and the Dow is down 95 points. Dow 10,000 continues to be the great psychological barrier and my work suggests that that Dow 10,000 will be tested in the next few months. Therefore the operative word is caution. Keep the word caution in you conscious unconscious mind.”

My only quibble is “What good news?” There has been soft earnings, mixed economic reports, and continued worries in the EU Zone.

Regardless, Russell still likes gold, pointing out it “holds valiantly in the 1700s.” He adds “Something big is in the wind, and the stock market senses it.”

My perspective is a bit different. Markets have rallied hard to start the year, and have been pulling back on lighter volume. That sort of back & fill is what we typically want to see in healthy markets.

There is still plenty to be concerned about — Sentiment is frothy, the never-ending Greek saga is nettlesome, and earnings are near a cyclical peak.

Regardless, Russell has been around a long time and has a decent track record.