Mambo number five!

En la carta semanal de Hussman (aquí), encontramos una muy interesante observación. Y es que cuando se analizan parámetros para identificar síndromes de sobrevaloración, sobrecompra o sobreoptimismo, encontramos que la situación actual en el S&P 500 es similar a la de 1972, 1987, 1999 y 2007 (el de hoy sería el mambo number five!). Períodos no muy favorables para tener una exposición alta a renta variable.

"Examine the points in history that the Shiller P/E has been above 18, the S&P 500 has been within 2% of a 4-year high, 60% above a 4-year low, and more than 8% above its 52-week average, advisory bulls have exceeded 45%, with bears less than 27%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been above its level of 20-weeks prior.

While there are numerous similar ways to define an “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields” syndrome, there are five small clusters of this one in the post-war record: November-December 1972, July-August 1987, a cluster between late-1999 and early 2000, early 2007, and today. The first four instances preceded the four most violent market declines in the post-war record, though each permitted a few percent of additional upside progress before those declines began in earnest.

We do not know what will happen in the present instance, particularly over the short-run. But on the basis of this and a broad ensemble of additional evidence, we estimate that the likelihood of deep losses overwhelms the likelihood of durable gains. To ignore those four prior outcomes as “too small a sample” is like standing directly underneath a falling anvil, on the logic that falling anvils are an extremely rare occurrence"