Alternativas para un mercado lateral

QE2 - Apres Moi, le Deluge

The problem for the financial markets here, in my view, is that the benefits of the speculation are now largely behind us. Our valuation models do assume that long-term growth in GDP and earnings will persist at the same roughly 6.3% peak-to-peak growth rate across economic cycles that has characterized the earnings channel for nearly a century. Yet given the level of stock valuations to normalized earnings - which better reflect the long-term stream of cash flows that investors can expect to receive - our present 10-year total return estimate for the S&P 500 is only about 3.4% annually (and to Mish, yes, the historical skew to these returns easily includes zero in the confidence interval).

None of this rules out further positive market returns over shorter periods, and we remain willing to accept moderate periodic exposures even here, provided that we can clear some component of the overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome we presently observe. But as Charles Dow said a century ago, "to understand values is to understand the meaning of the market." Occasional prospects for moderate exposure notwithstanding, I continue to view the long-term prospects for equities as weak. This is largely because we continue to rely on band-aids and overwhelming policy interventions to keep interest rates low and market valuations elevated, in preference to lower valuations (and commensurately higher interest rates and prospective equity returns) which would offer proper incentives to save and allocate capital for productive long-term uses.

Más, en la carta semanal de Hussman