Comentario semanal de Hussman

Por John P. Hussman, Ph.D

The Recognition Window

(...) Suffice it to say that it is premature to interpret last week's somewhat benign data as an "all clear" signal for the economy. Yes, this time may be different, and we may somehow skirt evidence that has historically been reliable, but we don't have a clear logical justification based in other data to support a rosy view. Even when statistical relationships are quite strong, the fact is that "coincident" evidence of economic weakness does not follow the leading indicators with flawless precision. We work with probability distributions - not forecasts - and distributions (picture a bell curve) have variation. There is no way to remove this uncertainty, and it is dangerous to assume that last week's data have done so. From my perspective, economic risks continue to be quite serious.

Bearishness without nervousness

An important part of last week's advance appeared to be a simple "clearing" of the a short-term oversold condition in prices and bearish sentiment. While the recent increase in bearish sentiment might have deserved something of a "clearing rally," it is notable that we're observing what might be called bearishness without nervousness. The chart below presents the Investors Intelligence bearish percentage versus the CBOE volatility index (VIX), which is often viewed as a "fear gauge" for the stock market. Historically, increases in the level of bearishness early in a market downturn are often both accurate and persistent, as we observed all through 2008 and in many past market cycles. It's difficult to look at the evidence and conclude that investors are excessively bearish, much less terrified here.

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