From Goldman Sachs:
The vigorous rebound in industrial activity that began in mid-2009 has begun to fade in recent months. This is already quite evident in the growth rate of industrial production, and to a lesser extent in the decline of the ISM manufacturing index from its peak in April.
We expect the ISM index to decline to 50 or below by early 2011. A significantly weaker ISM manufacturing index would be more consistent with a) the detail of the ISM report, specifically the small gap between the new orders and inventories indexes, b) the weighted average of regional factory surveys, c) the current rate of inventory growth, which has stabilized the manufacturing I/S ratio, d) the typical behavior of the ISM index after large inventory cycles such as the one we have just experienced, e) the recent sub-1% pace of final demand growth.
Enlace: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-why-ism-will-drop-below-50-coming-months
Enlace: http://loomingleming.blogspot.com/2010/09/afi-semanal-rv-rebote-sobre-indicadores.html
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