Situación técnica del S&P 500

Vía ZeroHedge

From Noyce:

• The S&P has so far done the absolute minimum correction, in terms of it has tested the uptrend from the August ‘10 lows at 1,300
• However, as discussed in a number of updates and client meetings over the last couple of weeks, the thing which “concerns” us in terms of it being a warning of a larger move is the fact that the market has been above the 55-dma for such an extreme period on a daily close basis.
• With Wednesday’s close above the market having spent 123 consecutive daily sessions above this particular moving average (it hasn’t made a daily close below since 1st September ‘10). This is very extreme by historic standards and takes the S&P to a greater period above its 55-dma than that which equity markets in other regions (particularly Asia) managed before they began to correct over recent weeks.
• The other notable point about the recent price action is the extreme move seen on Monday where the market posted its largest one-day %age decline since the recent rally began in earnest on 27th August ‘10.
• In terms of levels from here;
  
  • The uptrend from the 27th August low’s at 1,300
  • A similar size correction to that which took place from the 5th November high to the 16th November low (in point terms) would target 1,290
  • The 55-dma stands at 1,284
• In conclusion we’re by no means making an argument for a real “downtrend” in equities to begin, it’s too early to make that type of statement, but, the risks of a larger correction developing do seem quite high